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    Vector Securities

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    Failed continuation of growth at the beginning of the week provoked fixation of dollar’s long positions

    Failed continuation of growth at the beginning of the week provoked fixation of dollar’s long positions

    Yesterday dollar’s luck was out. It was facilitated by a series of events, which influenced consistently different currency pairs during the day. At first, the yen increased after the Bank of Japan claimed that there was no need for additional stimulation measures at that moment. In the afternoon the focus shifted to British pound. Although the forecast on inflation was lowered, but prospects of economic growth were heightened. Herewith Carney claimed that low inflation might not become an obstacle for increase in rates. The common currency has been in the shadow for long. Now finished negotiations in Minsk are regarded as success by parties, what gave a slight support to euro, but the main growth started after publication of US statistics. Retail sales fell below forecasts, and besides, weekly applications for unemployment benefits grew sharply. As a result, dollar retreated along the wide spectrum of currencies.

    Today euro has chances to develop an assault. The Eurozone will publish preliminary data on GDP for the 4th quarter. Forecasts are quite good – recession is delayed. We have already noted that economic indicators of the Eurozone aren’t bad enough to bury European economy. After launch of European QE, deflation issue has slightly decreased – it requires time to estimate its influence on prices. Greece is an irritating factor, still, negotiations continue and information leak indicates intensive work on searching for a compromise. Today there are no significant statistics from the U.S.A., so positive data on GDP of the Eurozone are able to trigger development of correction of European currency.

    Besides, today is Friday 13. May be dollar will be frightened (just a joke).

     

    Trade tactics:

    At yesterday’s trades EURUSD pair implemented a technical exit from the range. We opened a purchase for 1.1360, stop is rearranged at the entry point now. In case of continued growth, the nearest aim is at 1.1500 – 1.1510.

     

    Any opinions, advice, news, research, analyses, prices or any other information presented on this webpage is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. "Vector Securities" shall not be liable for any loss, including loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of this information.


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