The week has started with uncertainty, which became traditional for last days. In the first half of the day dollar was strengthening after publication of IFO report, which was weaker than expected. Most components of the report exceeded previous figures, but were significantly below forecasts. In the second half of the day the situation reversed. The report on houses sales in US secondary market became a disappointment. There the data appeared to be considerably worse than predicted, they decreased in contrast to the previous month. By the end of the day dollar strengthened slightly, but this change remains within the previous range.
Probably, today swings will go on in the market. In the first half of the day the focus of attention will be on the statistics from the Eurozone. First of all, the focus will be on the second evaluation of German GDP for the 4th quarter. The first evaluation was quite positive. Still, at that moment these data were practically ignored due to uncertainty concerning Greece. Today the market can accept them more positively, especially if increase of indicators will be detected. Now the final inflation in the Eurozone as a whole is a secondary concern after the decision on launch of quantitative easing program. Besides, for today the first speech of the ECB head Mario Draghi in the Europarliament is scheduled, it is supposed to raise the issue of launch of quantitative easing program, plus, some questions concerning prolongation of assistance program for Greece. Herewith, it should be remembered that Greece is to provide a list of reforms, which it is ready to make in exchange for prolongation of assistance program. Greece is going to send this list to Ministers of Finance of the EU in the first part of this day, and in the evening a teleconference will be held. The second part of the day will be fully devoted to the speech of the Fed head Janet Yellen before the Bank Committee of US Senate. It will become clear how the Fed is concerned about strong dollar. For Yellen it takes only one phrase to provoke a tsunami in the market.
Now we have no clear view of further movement direction of EURUSD pair. The pair has got stuck in the range and there are no clear technical signals. Strong drivers are necessary to lift the market out of this condition. Now risks of breakthrough of any boundary of the range are balanced. We’ve put the order for breakthrough of 1.1450.
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