Yesterday trades in the exchange market practically repeated the scenario of the previous day – first, strengthening of dollar, then rollback. Dollar was growing moderately on expectations of Janet Yellen’s speech. European statistics didn’t surprise us – the data showed practically no changes in comparison with previous indicators. With the start of Yellen’s speech EURUSD pair made an attempt to press through 1.1300 downward, but failed. The speech itself was quite cautious and broad. There was confidence in further economic growth of the U.S.A., though with some reservations, but what concerns rates, there was no any certainty.
Concerns about dollar’s rate weren’t expressed. As a result, dollar bulls preferred not to strain and retreated. The more so since, several events, which didn’t facilitate efforts of dollar bulls, occurred in conjunction. First of all, Ministers of Finance of the EU approved the plan of reforms, provided by Greece. Still, it is claimed that it is just preliminary objectives, more detailed plan will be considered in April. So, Greek vaudeville seems eternal. Secondly, US Index of Consumer Confidence decreased much more than predicted. Players have no clear and strong drivers, so they try to use any event as a reason for movement. Last night Canadian dollar strengthened significantly after the speech of the Bank of Canada head Poloz. The market was laid at one more decrease of rate at the nearest session of the Bank of Canada, which will be held next week. Still, there were no even hints of it in his speech. As a result, loonie strengthened for more than a figure just in one minute. Mario Draghi’s speech didn’t cause any interest yesterday.
Today there is practically no economic news. Repeated speeches of Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen will take place. Still, repeated speeches rarely have something new, what can activate the market. In the evening US houses sales will be published, where decrease of indicators is expected, what may become a reason for moderate weakening of the dollar.
EURUSD pair has plunged into a morass and can’t break out of it. This condition has appeared long ago, and the risk of exit from it is growing every day. We have no clear view of the direction the breakthrough will go in, chances are equal. Due to it, it’s risky to trade within the range, though stops which are directly after boundaries of the range, minimize losses. Our technical indicators point more at probable further growth of pound, then euro. Breakthrough of 1.5480 is able to provoke movement up to 1.5530 – 1.5550, stop is at 1.5410.
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