As we have already warned, this week the market reacts to the fact of published statistics. Yesterday in the first half of the day quite good data on PMI in the Eurozone supported euro’s buyers – the pair was trying hard to break through above 1.1000. American statistics changed the balance of power dramatically. The data on inflation supported dollar – they were better than predicted. After final thrust above 1.1000 against euro, dollar bulls kept the initiative firmly. The more so since later published data on houses sales in the primary market only consolidated this trend. Yesterday was unfortunate for British pound too. There the data on inflation were weak, and it traded worse than the market for the whole day.
Today’s situation of the market somehow resembles yesterday’s one. A number of news is to be regained, the actual values will be the final measure. In the first half of the day the focus of attention will be on IFO report and euro has chances to try to renew growth again. Forecasts point at growth of business moods, though at a slight one. In the second half of the day American statistics will be in the foreground – durable goods orders will be published, and they have rarely met forecasts for last months. We presume that today these very data will define final balance of power in the exchange market.
Yesterday US data on inflation prompted us to decide to close euro’s long positions, the more so since the pair tested outlined aims of daily growth at 1.1020, purchases were closed for 1.1015. Now we tend to believe that it is short-term delay in correction phase, though sharp repeated bounce from 1.1000 doesn’t exclude return to descending trend. It seems that such behavior of the market, with frequent change of moods, will become the rule for last days of current month. At this moment technical picture is unclear for us, so we’ve decided to take a pause and refrain from active trading once again.
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