The first day of regular work week started well for dollar. American currency grew against the majority of other main world currency quite confidently, though without rapid movements. Suddenly indicators of incomplete deals on houses sales increased considerably above forecasts, growth occurred for the second month in a row. Growth of personal incomes and expenses is also detected, though expenses were slightly worse than predicted. It is already evident that dollar will finish this month with growth, the only unclear thing is how close to maximums.
Today news background consists mostly of European events – retail sales and unemployment in Germany, consumer spending in France, inflation in Italy and the Eurozone. Actually, now only German unemployment is quite good, other data are unlikely to support euro. At least, forecasts aren’t very optimistic. Besides, the lack of progress in eternal negotiations with Greece has already tired investors. In April Greece is to make huge debt repayments, the country is still on the verge of default. Euro’s prospects for improving its positions remain weak. Against this background even contradictory economic statistics from the U.S.A. look much more attractive. Today the Index of consumer confidence and business activity will be published by the Chicago Fed. Despite sharp bounce from January maximums, the Index of consumer confidence remains at high levels and expected slight decrease will change little in this regard. Still, PMI of Chicago can support dollar – growth is expected here.
Speaking of other events of this day, we’d like to highlight final GDP for the 4th quarter in the U.K. and GDP of Canada. British GDP is unlikely to experience some changes, still, here parliamentary elections scheduled for the beginning of May can come to the foreground. Until this moment this event was paid little attention, but now official pre-election campaign has already started, and participants of the market will carefully monitor the process. And monthly GDP has more risks for Canadian dollar. Forecasts vary, ranging from 0 to -0,2 %. Negative result will severely affect the rate of Canadian currency.
There are no any changes in our position. We continue to keep short position in EURUSD pair from 1.0930, stop is at the entry point. Middle-term aims are in the range of previous minimums near 1.0500.
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