No one succeeded to challenge dollar’s leadership in the 1st quarter
Yesterday European statistics could not help European currency, though they can’t be called definitely negative. It was more contradictory than negative. Weak retail sales in Germany (but better than predicted), herewith unemployment situation improved. The inflation of the Eurozone as a whole was slightly better, still, unemployment grew (actually, it was mainly due to downward revision of indicators for previous months). The lack of really good news presses euro and at European session the pair fell to the range of the level 1.0700, which it couldn’t surpass in the end. Publication of American statistics practically didn’t change anything, though they were moderately positive. The Chicago PMI increased, but didn’t reach forecasts, and the Index of consumer confidence grew unexpectedly, overcoming the level of 100 points. British pound resisted dollar best of all. British GDP for the 4th quarter was revised upward, what nobody expected. It allowed pound to close the day on the plus side.
Today’s news background doesn’t give hopes for sudden changes of market’s moods. In the Eurozone final data on PMI business activity in production sector for March will be published. Even if changes will appear, they will be insignificant. Influence on market’s dynamic is low now. Pessimism about Greece exceeds all probable positive of economic statistics. The similar indicator from the U.K. has more chances to shake the market. After yesterday’s sudden upward correction of GDP, positive PMI is able to prevent pound’s fall for some time, but it can’t resist common dynamic of the market for long. American data have some uncertainty. ADP report on employment in private sector will probably reflect good state of labor market. Still, production ISM and building costs are at risk. Production ISM has decreased from October of last year. Although for all this time, it has been above 50 points, but its dynamic worries. If it is above forecasts, then it will undoubtedly have positive influence on dollar, and if it is below forecasts, then it will stop growth of American currency for some time.
Now fundamental factors are against euro, technical ones aren’t optimistic either. Some tension is detected in short-term periods – there are some grounds for correction, but long-term indicators haven’t reached oversold area. So, we continue to keep short position in EURUSD pair with middle-term aims in the range 1.0500 – 1.0600.
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