What concerns yesterday, the only thing can be said – despite unfavorable news background, dollar keeps conquered positions. ADP report on employment in private sector as well as production ISM and building costs were worse than predicted. Nevertheless, dollar’s weakening was limited. Investors prefer dollar, assuming that prospects of US economy are better compared with other regions.
Today there is not a lot of economic news. In the U.K. it is building PMI, in the U.S.A. it is trade balance, weekly applications for unemployment benefits, NY ISM, production orders. American statistics haven’t yet given confident signals of growth, and the data are very contradictory, though dollar ignores it. As long as there are some hopes for monetary policy tightening by the U.S.A., current trend is retained. It also concerns today’s statistics – forecasts aren’t optimistic, still, it is under the question whether it will make dollar retreat. Probably, the final choice will be made on Friday after publication of the report on labor.
Under such scenario, building PMI of the U.K. is of secondary concern. British pound will regain actual data for a short period of time, but in the end it will follow the rest of the market.
The lack of progress in further advancement of dollar makes us tense a little. So, we have to be patient. Once again, there is uncertainty in the technical picture of EURUSD pair. Everything can be decided already tomorrow, after publication of the report on labor in the U.S.A. To cautious traders we can recommend considering fixation of short positions and taking a pause. To aggressive traders we recommend keeping short positions in EURUSD. Our choice for today is to keep.
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