Vector Securities - Analytics

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    The influence of nonfarm payrolls was short-term

    The influence of nonfarm payrolls was short-term

    The beginning of the week was inactive due to continued weekend linked with celebration of catholic Easter. The pressure on dollar lasted almost a full first trade day of the week, but not very confidently. ISM in service sphere of the U.S.A. decreased slightly, still it practically met forecasts, so it didn’t impress anyone much. Dollar’s index renewed Friday’s minimums, though only symbolically. Surprises appeared late in the evening. “Thin market” played a trick with currencies – slow “creeping back” of dollar from daily minimums was suddenly changed by its sharp growth for no reason. Such result of the day spoils the game of predicting further behavior of the market.

    At today's session, the Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rates unchanged, what has pleased Australian dollar’s bulls – immediately after this message the pair AUDUSD jumped sharply, still, accompanying comments were quite soft and didn’t exclude decline in rates in future, so this euphoria over the RBA’s decision can end very soon.

    Today against the background of lack of significant American statistics, Europe is to show its assets to dollar. It can be PMI final data on business activity in service sphere for March and producers’ prices in the Eurozone. We should admit that these assets are so-so. As a rule, PMI is rarely corrected at this stage, though recently it has started to happen more often. We’d prefer not to predict in which direction the adjustment can be. Although these changes will be probably minimal, they may be used for market’s movement to any direction depending on actual data. What concerns producers’ prices, the situation is better – after stabilization of energy prices deflation processes have stopped, and weak growth of inflation is detected. So, in this regard, the common currency should not expect the negative, though the data won’t give specific support. The similar PMI in service sphere will be also published in the U.K. Forecasts promise a slight growth, but here the reaction to the fact should be expected.

     

    Trade tactics:

    Yesterday’s fall of euro to the range 1.0910 late in the evening was unexpected, it only adds contradictions to the evaluation of the situation. Today we don’t exclude any development of events – return to the range 1.1000 as well as fall below 1.0900. Under such uncertainty we prefer to stay out of the market.

     

    Any opinions, advice, news, research, analyses, prices or any other information presented on this webpage is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. "Vector Securities" shall not be liable for any loss, including loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of this information.


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