On the first day of work week growth rates of dollar slowed down slightly. Yesterday information background didn’t provide special capacity, and in most currency pairs trades passed quite calmly, except movements in Australian dollar and Japanese yen, which were provoked by local events. Yesterday in the morning at Asian session Australian dollar fell due to weak data on Chinese foreign trade and yen grew sharply after words of Hamada, the Advisor to the Prime Minister of Japan about fair rate of 105.00 against dollar by purchasing power parity. In most currency pairs dollar still keeps its positions. The market is preparing for main events of current week.
Whether European data will succeed to change current dynamics of the market? It is unlikely. Although industrial production of the Eurozone promises improvement in March, but it can’t provoke turning point itself. For today the main driver is the set of American statistics. The initial scenario doesn’t change – most forecasts are positive, but further it is a lottery. Will it coincide or won’t. Only American data can prevent dollar’s growth now. If today they don’t let down, then we will see new maximums of dollar.
Speaking of local events of this day, British report on inflation is of most interest. And here almost everything depends on actual results. If inflation is above forecasts – stabilization and even bounce of British currency from minimums can be expected, if it is below forecasts – trend of decrease can be expected.
Dollar is slowing down, but it’s still unclear whether it will become a signal for reversal. And just in case we pull up stop on euro closer to current levels at 1.0650. The interest to profit fixation will appear below 1.0500. For the rest, everything is unchanged. There are no any signals of reversal.
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