It is quite difficult to comment on the regular boring day in the market. Trades’ dynamics differed very little from the previous day, still, that time at first dollar weakened slightly, but by the end of the day it returned to initial positions. As before, the market can’t make a choice. Well, houses sales in US secondary market were better than predicted, but by that time dollar had already regained almost all losses sustained at the beginning of the day. We just have to wait.
Today series of interesting economic reports will be published, still, we cautiously estimate the probability of exit from current range. In the Eurozone preliminary indices of PMI business activity will be published and forecasts are moderately positive. However, taking into account inactive reaction of the market to positive European statistics, it is difficult to expect changes this time. Perhaps, the market will be pleased with probability to sell euro if indices of business activity disappoint. The data on houses sales in US primary market are of interest for dollar. Some decrease of sales is expected, comparing with previous month, but everything isn’t so unambiguous here. Sales are at annual maximums, so slight rollback won’t signalize anything. The market reacts more eagerly to surprises, and in this case the report above forecasts will be a surprise. Once again, it is about actual figures. The market needs some impulse, herewith an unexpected event can become a driver for this impulse. Speaking of local events, today there are retail sales in the U.K. While euro is consolidating without any specific movement, traders have an opportunity to regain local data. The forecast on British sales is quite positive, testing of new local maximums of this week by pound after the publication of the report is possible.
The situation remains unchanged – we are uncertain about market situation. We see chances as 45/55 in favor of further decrease of euro from current levels, still, risks of entering the market are too high. So, we stay observers.
Any opinions, advice, news, research, analyses, prices or any other information presented on this webpage is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. "Vector Securities" shall not be liable for any loss, including loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of this information.