Vector Securities - Analytics

    Vector Securities

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    The lack of positive in economic statistics presses dollar

    The lack of positive in economic statistics presses dollar
    Yesterday in the first half of the day, incapacity of dollar’s index to break through above 98.50 after weak PMI in the Eurozone provoked regular fixation of long positions on dollar. European preliminary PMI disappointed, but bulls had no strength to use this gift. In the second half of the day, it was time of disappointment for dollar – houses sales in the primary market fell unexpectedly by 11.4 % and returned to the levels of December of last year. It became the main reason, after which dollar couldn’t recover until the end of the day. 
    Today there is German IFO. Besides, there are durable goods orders in the U.S.A. today. It is difficult to predict results. Recently almost all analytics’ forecasts have been the same as taking a stab in the dark. Less than half of the forecasts coincide with the reality. IFO is expected to grow, but after yesterday’s ambiguous ZEW report and failed PMI, positive can be expected from IFO with great caution. There is more uncertainty with American statistics. The pause with expectation of renewed stable growth of economy is protracted. Now there are no signs that something will change in the 2nd quarter. The issue of monetary policy tightening by the Fed is hanging in the air. Next week there is a regular session of FOMC, but there are practically no hopes that the Fed will say something specific. Still, today all economic scenarios can be covered by the Eurogroup session, where the issue of reforms’ implementation by Greece and assistance to it will be considered once again. Positive decision is able to wake the market up and return the interest to European currencies. Still, the discussion of this question can last for weekend. 
    Trade tactics:
    The closure of EURUSD pair above 1.0800 creates preconditions for continuation of growth. Herewith risks of entrance to the market remain high. To aggressive traders we recommend considering euro’s purchase under breakthrough of 1.0850, stop at 1.0740 with initial aim at 1.0910 – 1.0920. In case of a pair growth of more than 30 points from the entry point, rearrange stop at the entry point. 
    Any opinions, advice, news, research, analyses, prices or any other information presented on this webpage is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. "Vector Securities" shall not be liable for any loss, including loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of this information. 

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