All previous day the market was trying to find ways for further movement, reacting to contradictory events, there was no any dynamics. And if in the first half of the day dollar was growing on weak data from the Eurozone (PMI were revised downward) and regaining comments of Greek Prime Minister on negotiations for debt issue, then weak data on personal incomes and expenses from the U.S.A. and statements by the head of Boston Fed Rosengren about premature monetary policy tightening at the beginning of American session made dollar pass almost all daily positions. Still, after publication of ISM production activity the situation changed in the market again – the data were better than predicted and dollar closed the day on a plus side. Herewith no any critical levels were passed and the situation remains uncertain.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, at today’s session, has left interest rates unchanged. Still, it was expected. Accompanying comments were moderately “dovish” and promised, if necessary, to continue weakening of monetary policy. Still, the lack of specifics and inactive rhetoric caused only fixation of short positions on Australian dollar, which started to grow after the session.
Speaking of the other events of this day, there are relatively few significant ones. In the Eurozone there is German unemployment and inflation of the Eurozone as a whole. Recently the market has reacted quite moderately to both indicators. Yesterday’s data on German inflation didn’t impress the market, though the indicator has started to go away from minimums. Probably, today’s reaction will be inactive too. Today production orders will be published in the U.S.A. Growth is expected, but considerably lower than in previous month. Substantial discrepancies with forecasts to one or another direction can provoke activity splash. The market is in relative balance and can’t decide on movement direction.
We continue to keep short position in EURUSD pair, stop is at the entry point. Yesterday attempts to break through below 1.0900 failed as well as Friday’s attempts to break through above 1.1000. The movement within the figure 1.0900 – 1.1000 gives practically no signals of further intentions of the market. To cautious traders we recommend leaving the market and waiting until more certainty appears.
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