The market is in uncertainty again. Any impulse fades quickly without continuation. Currencies are rushing as Brownian motion, reacting to external influences from time to time. If yesterday’s growth of pound looks natural against the background of good data on British GDP, then euro’s rollback by a figure from maximums reached the day before without obvious reasons in the first half of the day is difficult to explain. Still, if desired, we can regard weak data on consumer confidence in Italy as a reason. However, after publication of weak data on US Index of consumer confidence, the substantial part of losses was regained. Herewith, following the end of the day, Canadian dollar demonstrated the most significant growth after publication of producers’ prices better than predicted. We expect outcomes of FOMC to give some sense to market’s movements and create conditions for more unity of opinions among players.
Concerning today’s events, we can say only one thing – FOMC. As considerable part of market’s participants still believe in increase of rates at the September session, so many want to see any hints of coming monetary policy tightening in final communiqué. Especially since Janet Yellen promised more transparency of own actions. Market’s reaction will depend on it. This time we prefer not to try predicting anything. Everything is possible.
It turned out that yesterday we hurried to close our position with loss, it was possible to close it with profit. Still, we presume that the situation is too uncertain, so we preferred more to leave the market with minimal losses, than take wild guesses. Another large range 1.0800 – 1.1450 has formed, and EURUSD pair is approximately in the middle. Sharp growth and closure near maximums on the first day of the week pointed at risks of movement to upper boundary, what became the reason of our decision to close short position. At this moment we are out of the market, we are going to await outcomes of FOMC session and first reaction to the communiqué, before we make any conclusions.
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