Vector Securities - Analytics

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    Dollar is slowly strengthening

    Dollar is slowly strengthening
    At yesterday’s trades dollar continued its slow strengthening, regaining outcomes of FOMC. Economic statistics didn’t bring surprises. German unemployment and inflation were slightly worse than predicted and didn’t support European currencies. The main movement driver was the data on US GDP for the 2nd quarter. Despite the fact that they were slightly worse than predicted, but in any case they appeared to be considerably better than in the 1st quarter. What is more important, the results of the 1st quarter were revised upward up to 0.6 %. It allowed dollar to change the situation in own favor in the second half of the day. 
    There is only one workday in this month. Speaking of main events of the agenda, there are retail sales in Germany and inflation and unemployment in the Eurozone. Any weakness in European data will have a painful effect on euro. Especially if inflation data are below forecasts. Insignificant index of business activity in Chicago and final index of confidence of Michigan University will be published in the U.S.A. Forecasts are quite good. Everything points at continued tendency of slow growth of dollar, which has formed for last two days. It will be a real surprise, if on the last day of the month the market will sharply change moods to the opposite. Considering local data, it makes sense to pay attention to regular monthly GDP of Canada, its results can provoke sharp growth of volatility of Canadian currency. 
    Trade tactics:
    Yesterday we sold euro again. This time – from 1.0982. Market’s dynamics allowed setting stop at the entry point. Initial aims. Which we outlined at 1.0910, are reached, next ones are at 1.0870 and further at 1.0820. Now we recommend keeping short positions with pointed aims. Herewith risks of regular bounce are quite high. The closure of the day above 1.1000 will significantly worsen dollar’s prospects, the closure below 1.0900 will confirm current balance of power. 
    Any opinions, advice, news, research, analyses, prices or any other information presented on this webpage is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. "Vector Securities" shall not be liable for any loss, including loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of this information. 

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