The first day of the week was very calm. Almost all forecasts weren’t met (European PMI were slightly better than predicted, most published indicators of American statistics were below forecasts). However, it had little influence on the exchange market as a whole and on dollar particularly. Weak American data facilitated fall of prices in commodity markets, what allowed dollar not only to stay afloat, but even strengthen against most currencies.
Australian dollar grew at Asian session after quite good data on retail sales and the RBA decision to leave interest rate unchanged. Still, accompanying comments were quite soft and fall of prices in raw-material markets won’t let “Aussie” to enjoy positive moments in full. Perhaps, it is just a temporary respite.
For the rest of the day there will be few notable events, though they can’t be called crucial – producers’ prices in the Eurozone and production orders in the U.S.A. and ISM in New York. Relying on the similar indicator of Germany, published two weeks ago, we presume that European producers’ prices will decrease too. Still, the market reacts inactively to this indicator, as a rule. Once again, everything is in hands of American statistics – whether at last we will see visible improvement of economic indicators, which are able to encourage the Fed to take a decisive step. Although forecasts on American statistics are positive again, still, it has become a chronic pattern that they aren’t met.
Our estimation of current situation hasn’t changed after a day. We don’t see signals of change of trend and good grounds for euro’s purchase. So, we continue to keep short position in EURUSD pair. At the same time, to strengthen descending movement of euro it is necessary to close the day below 1.0900. Otherwise, we can face mass profit fixation again.
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