The first day of a regular work week showed the lack of single dynamics in the exchange market. European currencies suffered most of all. Although there were grounds for it – European PMI in service sphere were largely revised downward, and British one was worse than predicted, still, the similar indicator from the U.S.A. – ISM in service sphere fell considerably. However, by the end of the day dollar’s index increased above 96.00 again. Probably, the dynamics of stock market took significant part in it, as stock market showed active growth yesterday (after weak data on unemployment stock players are in a hurry to regain delay of monetary policy tightening by the Fed). It has been already noted that for last year euro has been used as a fund currency, so it moves in the opposite phase with stock market. But then this very factor has positive influence on trade currencies, which closed the day with profit yesterday.
The most interesting event of this day has already happened – the Reserve Bank of Australia has left interest rate unchanged, Australian dollar grew slightly on this decision. Further its behavior will depend on dynamics of stock market. Other events scheduled for today aren’t of first significance. Germany will publish data on production orders. The indicator is very volatile and it hasn’t been stable during the year. Some growth of the indicator is expected, what can again return euro to 1.1200. Scheduled speech of Draghi is more significant for the common currency, though he can say nothing new. The U.S.A. will publish report on foreign trade. Increased deficit of trade balance is expected. However, for last years this indicator has attracted little attention, the exception is only when it differs from forecasts considerably. Besides, during last days the market has started to pay less attention to the negative of American statistics. Today we’d prefer to focus on economic statistics from Canada. The data on trade balance and Ivey index of business activity will be published there, and forecasts aren’t very optimistic. Negative statistics can lead to the end of correction of USDCAD pair.
Yesterday’s closure in EURUSD pair below 1.1200 is a negative signal. Our indicators point at probability of further movement downward. Today we consider pair’s sales under breakthrough 1.1140, stop at 1.1250.
Purchase of USDCAD pair can become one more interesting deal of this day. Here our suggestion is purchase in the range 1.3010 – 1.3030, stop at 1.2940.
In both cases if price goes away from the entry point for more than 30 points, rearrange stop at the entry point.
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