US consumers are reluctant to show activity. Yesterday’s report on retail sales disappointed even incurable optimists. Sales were not only worse than predicted, but also the data for previous month were revised downward. Besides, the report on producers’ prices was also weak, which once again pointed at deflation threat in the U.S.A. In the second half of American session the Fed report on economy called “Beige Book” finished dollar. Still, it can’t be said that this report contains something totally new comparing with previous releases of this year. Probably, this very fact disappointed investors, as such inactive economic growth makes the Fed doubt the necessity of monetary policy tightening. Yesterday British pound was the most active again, it regained all losses of previous day. This time British statistics were favorable for it – the report on unemployment was above forecasts. Herewith dollar’s index showed maximum decrease of this month due to higher correlation of currencies in comparison with previous days – dollar decreased against all currency pairs.
Today American statistics will again test the market. This time the report on inflation for September is almost the main indicator, which can influence directly the Fed’s actions. There is no sense to focus on forecasts. Considering the importance of this indicator, any discrepancies to one direction or another are able to provoke impetuous reaction of the market. The majority set itself up for slowdown in tendency of moderate growth of inflation indicators, which was detected recently and caused by continued stagnation of energy prices. So, in case of the data above forecasts, any positive will be music to dollar’s ears. Still, now dollar is under pressure after previous day. The data on Australian unemployment, which were slightly worse than expected and published during Asian session, had a weak influence on Aussie rate. After first reaction the pair returned to initial positions. Against the background of almost empty European calendar, everything will be decided at American session today.
EURUSD pair is ready to storm 1.1500, still, our technical indicators have already given signals of oversold, what can provoke correction. For today we consider euro’s sale from 1.1520 – 1.1540, stop at 1.1650. In case of a pair decrease of more than 30 points from the entry point, rearrange stop at the entry point.
Any opinions, advice, news, research, analyses, prices or any other information presented on this webpage is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. "Vector Securities" shall not be liable for any loss, including loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of this information.