The beginning of the week didn’t change power of balance of the exchange market considerably. News was mainly ignored – the data on PMI business activity in the Eurozone were generally better than predicted, still they helped little to euro, the report on houses sales in US secondary market was slightly worse than expected, but dollar bulls weren’t disappointed much. Looking for a reason to speculate, players use any suitable grounds – Canadian dollar was actively moving against the background of oil prices fluctuations yesterday. Herewith general market mood remains the same – there is still a demand for dollar on the threshold of increase of rates in the U.S.A.
Today main events are the first evaluation of GDP for the 3rd quarter in Germany and the report of German institute IFO on moods in business environment on one hand, and the second evaluation of GDP for the 3rd quarter, Index of consumer confidence, Richmond’s production activity and relatively new indicator – the balance of foreign trade in the U.S.A. on the other hand. Preliminary forecasts are in favor of dollar – decrease of economic expectations in Germany by IFO and probable upward revision of US GDP. Still, as is often the case, obvious positive can be used for profit fixation. Dollar growth rates are gradually slowing, herewith dollar’s index is approaching March maximums, the number of short positions on euro is close to annual maximums according to CFTC data, and long weekend is ahead. Under such conditions dollar bulls may not have enough strength for further strengthening of American currency.
Yesterday EURUSD pair tested levels slightly below 1.0600, but failed to fix there. Today one more attempt can be expected. Herewith our technical indicators are again concentrated in oversold areas. For us, it is a signal of close correction. At least, a pause with consolidation in narrow ranges is possible. So, we fear to renew short positions on euro, and there are no any signals for purchases.
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