The issue of risk-anti-risk still prevails in the market. Against this background even weak German IFO was ignored. On Monday oil prices reversed down together with stock market, what allowed euro to retain stability, but it sent trade currencies down together with pound. The exchange market continues to fluctuate following risky assets and repeats all their zigzags.
This day has relatively calm news background. Considering published economic statistics, American data are of most interest – consumer confidence, national PMI business activity in service sphere and production activity of Richmond. According to the latest edition of Beige Book, we can’t expect too much from business activity now, and the report of Dallas Fed just confirmed it yesterday. For dollar it will be a positive, if consumer confidence doesn’t fall considerably, what retains the basis for further growth. Speaking of local events, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Bank of England head Mark Carney. Pound reacted painfully to his last speech, where he expressed doubts about relevance of increase in rates at that moment. Yesterday MPC member Forbes stated this step was premature. Another confirmation of this thesis by Carney will become a bitter pill for pound.
Yesterday’s trades were nervous for us. USDCAD pair tried to break through above 1.4200 for too long, consolidating around this level. The stop we set after initial breakthrough above 1.4200 on the long position opened on Friday was beat out. So, we had to make a decision on renewal of the position for 1.4170. Consuming candle-stick at daily closure looks prospective for further growth of the pair. In case of day closure above 1.4330, next aim is the range 1.4410 – 1.4430. Now we are going to keep long position in the pair, stop is at the entry point.
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