As we presumed, FOMC minutes didn’t bring anything new – increased uncertainty of economic growth and internal risks were noted. This all has been already mentioned in recent speeches of Janet Yellen in US Congress. Therefore, the initial reaction of the market was limited. More interesting events appeared during the day. In general, American statistics were better than predicted – producers’ prices and industrial production exceeded expectations. Besides, in the afternoon the messages appeared that Iran is ready to join the agreement on freezing of oil production at current levels after the negotiations. It had positive influence on stock markets and trade currencies. Herewith the common currency stayed in quite narrow range. It is pressed by strong level of support from below, and growth is restrained by euphoria of stock markets.
Considering today’s events, it is worth looking closely at the minutes of the ECB last session on monetary policy, which are to be published today. Probably, they will clarify how seriously the ECB is in its plans of further steps towards quantitative easing. It can have serious impact on further dynamics of the common currency. Speaking of economic statistics, the most interesting data were at Asian session – unemployment in Australia and producers’ prices in China. In the first case, the data were weak, and Australian dollar passed its positions slightly. Limited reaction is provoked by general rise in trade markets after Iran’s readiness to join the agreement on freezing of oil production. For the rest, other news isn’t very significant – trade and payment balances of the Eurozone, weekly applications for unemployment benefits, and production activity of Philadelphia in the U.S.A. Their influence on market’s dynamics isn’t considerable now.
We don’t like to improvise during trades, we prefer to have a plan of entry into the market beforehand. Therefore, yesterday we decided not to enter the market after our long position in euro was closed on stop without losses, though our point of view didn’t change after it – we expect renewed growth of the pair. The pair was in tough range again, the breakthrough from which will define middle-term prospects. Today we are going to make purchases, this time when approaching the upper boundary of the range – we will buy under breakthrough of 1.1180, stop is still at 1.1060. In case of a pair growth of more than 30 points from the entry point, rearrange stop at the entry point.
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