Previous week was inactive as a whole, but the last day was very sluggish. Herewith players completely ignored final data on US GDP for the 4th quarter, which were better than predicted. Nevertheless, the reason is clear (Good Friday) and it is quite usual for such days. After such sleepy trades, players need some time to make up their minds, the more so since this Monday is also a day-off in some countries.
This week another month and quarter will end and new ones will start. Typically, by this moment most currency pairs are approximately in the middle of monthly range. From our point of view, it indicates that investors lack clear understanding of nearest prospects of the market. This week there are few events in the U.S.A. Labor report on the last day of the week will become the main one. Fears that labor market would slow down weren’t realized. However, by this moment investors have already lost their faith in the Fed’s readiness to continue increase in rates at claimed pace, so these data didn’t help dollar. It remains unclear whether this time strong data on unemployment (forecasts are quite positive) will be enough. Against the background of market’s reaction to last decisions of the ECB (when the market decided that the ECB practically exhausted its possibilities of further monetary policy softening), the Eurozone’s economic statistics become more important. This week there crucial reports will be published – preliminary data on inflation for March and retail sales in Germany. There are preconditions that inflation will give signals of growth and this indicator is the most critical for euro now. So, this week there are reasons for activity, but there is no understanding in what direction this potential will be realized.
Now we don’t see anything in current balance of power. Therefore, we prefer to wait, and await any signals, which allow making forecasts. We stay out of the market.
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