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    Technical Analysis GBPUSD : 2015-02-05

    Pound reversal

    Today at 12:00 СЕТ the Bank of England is to hold a regular meeting. Investors expect the interest rate to remain the same (0,5%) and are moderately pessimistic about English economy current state. Pound has been strengthening against dollar for 3 consequent days, owing to good Manufacturing, Construction and Services PMI, issued on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Jobless Claims and Q4 Non-Farm Productivity are announced at 13:30 CET today in the USA: estimated data are relatively weak. At the same time US Trade Balance for December will become public. It is likely to be positive, but overall statistics may undermine the American currency. Our analysts believe the data publication will reinforce GBP/USD. Over the last six months pound has lost 11% against greenback. It is high time for the pound to rebound.


    Let us consider the GBP/USD currency pair on the H4 chart. Leaving behind the down trend, the price breached the H4 resistance line. We observe a surge, which followed pullback to the trend line. Bullish momentum will be continued if 1.52757 fractal resistance is crossed: you may place a long pending order at this mark. However, we advise you to keep an eye on the RSI-Bars oscillator, which is overbought. Conservative traders are recommended to wait until the price gap (which was developed in January, 2-5) is bridged. Stop loss may be placed at the level of 1.511, indicated most recently by Parabolic. This mark can be now considered as the support line. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets Stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend canceling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered.


    Position Buy
    Buy stop above 1.52757
    Stop loss below 1.511

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