IFC Markets - Analytics

    IFC Markets

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    Technical Analysis USDCAD : 2015-02-20

    Pending statistics

    Today at 14:30 CET Core Retail Sales will be released in Canada. The indicator is published monthly by Statistics Canada and shows the relative change in the total value of retail sales, excluding automobiles (20% of Retail Sales). CRS estimates consumer spending which is based on store sampling of different types at retail level. The indicator measures the consumer confidence and is of particular interest for long-term investors. We deem that news release would result in higher volatility of the USD/CAD currency pair.


    Let’s examine this currency pair on the H4 chart. The price has consolidated inside the triangle which doesn’t have any clear bias. However, RSI-Bars oscillator broke the local support line: this is the first leading bearish signal. The trend channel has also been formed on the H4 chart. The price is ready to break the support level at 1.23764. The strength of this level is confirmed by Bill Williams fractals and the lower boundary of Donchian Channel. This mark can be used for placing a pending sell order. In this case, the ParabolicSAR reversal in the direction of the red zone is possible to happen.

    Stop loss is to be placed above the resistance level at 1.25755, which is also confirmed by the fractal and the upper channel boundary. After pending order activation, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours near the next fractal high, following Parabolic values. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.


    Position Sell
    Sell stop below 1.23764
    Stop loss above 1.25755

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