Weak American statistics boost gold
On Wednesday gold quotes marked the highest growth over 2 months. The demand for the precious metal increased as investors were concerned that amid negative economic data FRS would continue with easy monetary policy. In our opinion, American industry doesn't show increase, despite fuel has become twice as cheap. Yesterday's decline in ISM Manufacturing was worse-than-expected. Today at 16:00 CET Factory Orders will be released in the USA, they are anticipated to inch 0.4%. If the data fail to meet expectations, gold futures may advance further. To be noted, Factory Orders recorded decline during 6 of 7 previous months, showing the worst dynamics since 2008. Deteriorating labor market may produce additional negative effect on US economy. Yesterday ADP independent agency announced negative Employment statistics. New jobs indicator has fallen to its 12-month lowest, which will more likely lead to weak Friday Non-Pharm payrolls. However, if the statistics turn out to be good our assumptions may be revised. We also remind that on Friday most market participants will have a day-off due to Easter (Catholic calendar).
Let us consider the XAUUSD pair on the H4 chart. It is moving within the bullish trend above the Moving Average 200. We observe a pullback in prospect of Payrolls. RSI-Bars is above 50 but hasn't yet reached the overbought zone. We do not exclude the bullish momentum to continue, if the fractal maximum and the Donchian Channel lower boundary are breached at 1208.35 – a buy pending order may be placed there. Stop loss may be placed at the Donchian Channel bottom and the local fractal low, which may now act as support line – 1180. Careful investors are recommended to place stop loss at the Moving Average – 1193. After pending order activation stop loss is to be moved every 4 hours near the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the position: market sustains internal changes that were not considered.
|Buy stop||above 1208,35|
|Stop loss||below 1180|