IFC Markets - Analytics

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    European stocks closed on Good Friday

    American stocks rose on Thursday as US Dollar Index declined. Macroeconomic statistics turned out to be moderately positive. Investors believe that it to be good for stock market. However, good dynamics postpone Fed rate hike and drive down the American currency. February Manufacturing Orders have expanded for the first time since October, 2009. In theory, it may add to GDP in the first quarter. Its forecasts range from 0.6% to 1.7% yearly, which is far above the surge in Q4, 2014 (plus 2.2%). Last week Jobless Claims have fallen to their lowest since December, 2000. At 14:30 CET March Employment Change statistics will be announced in the USA. According to estimates, Non-Farm payrolls will amount to 245 thousand and may hit the 200-thousand record for 13 consequent month. On Thursday the American stocks trade volume made up 5.9 bln shares, which is 15% below the monthly average.

    We remind you that US companies will announce their earnings next week. Alcoa is the first company to publish the report April, 8. Most investors expect declining earnings among S&P 500 enterprises.

    Today European stocks have a day-off due to Catholic Easter-Eve, while Forex currency market is operating as usual. To be mentioned, most stock exchanges won't work on Monday and will resume operations only on Tuesday. Yesterday European indices closed at the break-even point. Investors' activity was at its lowest in prospect of today's releases in the US and the holiday in Europe. The euro advanced due to the declining dollar. It should be pointed out that Dollar Index added 20% over the last 3 quarters, hitting the 10-year record. Some investors look forward to a pullback.

    Nikkei edged higher yesterday together with American stocks, though there were no important economic data. Honda Motor shares gained 1.7% after the company presented a new concept Civic at an auto show in New-York.

    Brent quotes marked a sharp fall after the US and the EU decided to lift sanctions, imposed on Iran. The country may now raise its exports to 2.5 mln barrels per day. The prices didn't slump because a number of factors. First, Iran is supposed to fulfill some conditions before the sanctions are eased. Second, the country should adjust its individual quota to the restrictions, introduced by OPEC. WTI quotes didn't show significant decrease due to the report, saying that since the October peak, operating oil rigs were reduced by half.

    UN Food organization reported that the calculated “food basket” price decreased to its weakest since June, 2010, despite milk becoming more expensive. The forecast for global crop reserves in the season 2014/2015 was increased 2.4%. We believe that food futures may become sensitive to fundamentals. For example, wheat quotes jumped on the news that Russian wheat may become less accessible due to sanctions.

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