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American statistics may affect dollar

American indices expanded on Thursday due to good employment data and positive quarterly earnings reports by Alibaba (Chinese online store). Its shares gained 7.5%, raising the demand for American web companies stocks. Being Alibaba shareholder, Yahoo added 5.3%. Yelp com jumped 23% on the information, concerning its probable selling. American S&P Tech index climbed 0.9%. American stocks trade volume was 3% below five-day average, making 6.9 bln shares. Today at 14:30 CET Non-Farm Payrolls will be published in the US; the tentative outlook is positive. American stock indices futures are in the green zone. However, on Wednesday ADP agency forecasted the decline in new jobs. If it is confirmed, official data may turn out to be negative. At 16:00 CET Wholesale Inventories for March will be released in the US; the tentative outlook is neutral.



European indices have been advancing for two consequent days, driven by positive data from the US and good German exports indicator for March. Trade Balance outstripped forecasts: the surplus made up 23 bln euros. The Conservative party in office won the parliamentary elections in Great Britain. That resulted in rising FTSE 100 and growing pound. The companies that could have been hurt by the Labour party victory, showed the sharpest growth: Lloyds gained 6.3%, while Centrica and Babcock - 6.9% and 7.1% respectively. FTSEurofirst 300 edged higher 1.6%. No important macroeconomic data are expected today in eurozone.

Yesterday Nikkei opened with remarkable losses after continuous holidays. Today it has witnessed a slight increase on the back of global stock market trend. Nintendo issued yearly operating income forecast of $416.9 mln, so the shares rallied 7.2%. In general, Nikkei advanced just 0.5% from its monthly low. We do not exclude, that negative data from China may have affected the index. Following important macroeconomic information from Japan will be announced on Tuesday.

Trade Balance indicator for April was issued in China today. The surplus of $34.1 bln turned out to be worse-than-expected. This information had a moderate negative impact on some commodity futures, since investors expect that 6.4% export contraction will force the Chinese government to take additional economy stimulus measures. If it does not happen, the GDP in the second quarter may fall to 6.6%, as compared to 7% in the first quarter, resulting in a deeper decline of commodity futures.



Oil prices fell due to the strengthening dollar. Investors expect oilrigs number to grow as well. Market participants discounted rising oil import to China. We remind that in April it increased 13% to 30.29 mln tons, as compared to 26.81 mln tons in March. However, the volume is still above the one recorded in April, 2014. It is worth mentioning that a number of American investment banks forecasted that WTI oil price would stabilize near $55 per barrel (a bit below the current level).



Copper quotes have advanced because the export from China contracted 6.4% this April, as compared to April 2014. Meanwhile, the import decreased only 4.4% (430 thousand tons).



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