IFC Markets - Analytics

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Technical Analysis USDCHF : 2015-05-18

Triangle way out

Today we examine the USD/CHF currency pair on the H4 chart. The price is located in the consolidation zone of the triangle formed by the bearish trendline and the support level at 0.91102. At the current moment there is a price retracement associated with the profit taking occurred at the end of last week. However, let’s recall that the composite index of Consumer Sentiment was released on Friday in the US. It fell 8% below estimates and the previous month value. As fundamental data of great importance is not expected today, we believe that the bearish trend of the US currency will be maintained.


Bearish momentum is expected to develop further after the fractal support breakout at 0.91102. Since then, ParabolicSAR is likely to reverse in the direction of the red zone. We can also expect Donchian Channel to have a negative bias. The support breakout will likely to result in a price movement with fluctuations determined by the triangle height, i.e. 15-20 pips. Conservative traders are recommended to pay attention to the RSI-Bars oscillator. Bars coincide with the price retracement movement direction. To be sure in the bearish trend, we suggest waiting for the breakout at 41%, which is expected to accompany the price support crossover at 0.91102. This mark is confirmed by Parabolic historical values and the support trend line. Stop loss is to be placed at the resistance line (0.92604), which is strengthened by the upper Donchian Channel boundary. After pending order placing, Stop loss is to be moved every four hours to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point.


Position Sell
Sell stop below 0.91102
Stop loss above 0.92604

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