US stocks advanced on Thursday in tandem with the dollar strengthening due to very optimistic economic data releases. Retail Sales in May ( 1.2%) rose for the third straight month. Good data on the US labour market has allowed investment banks to raise the growth forecasts for the US economy. In particular, Barclays expects the GDP growth in 2015 at 3.2% and Goldman Sachs – at 3.1%. Some market participants don’t exclude this indicator to be revised for the first quarter up from the initial estimate (-0.7%). Recall that the Final US GDP for the first quarter will be published on June 24. Initial Claims have remained below the level of 300 thousand people for the 14th consecutive week, bolstering the investors’ optimism. Extra positive news for the stock market was the risen shares of pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly by 4.1% after the release of new cure for Alzheimer's disease. Fast food chain Krispy Kreme has raised its profit forecast for 2016 and the company’s shares boosted 13.9%. Trading turnover on US exchanges yesterday was 5.8 billion shares, 5% lower than the average in June. Today at 14-30 СЕТ PPI in May will be released in the US and at 16-00 СЕТ – Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment. In our opinion, the tentative outlook is positive for both indicators. At 19-00 СЕТ Baker Hughes will report the change in the number of existing oil rigs in the United States. Last week they amounted to 868 units. This report may affect oil prices.European stocks rose on Wednesday and Thursday along with the US markets. There was no macroeconomic statistics posted in the EU. Euro dipped yesterday and continues to weaken today on news about current problems in the negotiations of Greece and the IMF. Moreover, German chancellor Angela Merkel claimed that a stronger euro could hinder European reforms. Today at 11-00 СЕТ Industrial Production in April will be released in the EU. The outlook is neutral.
Nikkei has retreated today after the two days of gains together with other world stock indices. It was underpinned by upbeat final revised Industrial Production in April, published in the early morning. Toshiba stocks dropped 2.1% after the news story released in Nikkei business daily newspaper, saying that the company may reconsider previous statements. Toshiba announced in late May that the annual report will be published two months later than usual. Yen was traded higher, which means the Japanese currency is weakening as the dollar surged.
Coffee prices are sagging lower despite the International Coffee Organization forecast, which expects the global production to reduce by 3.3% in 2014/2015 to 141.9 million bags of 60 kg.