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Fed will hold meeting on Wednesday

Greece has not yet made a deal with IMF about debt restructuring, which has produced a negative impact on global stocks. American indices dropped after a 2-day surge. The US dollar price did not show significant changes: last week the greenback has been traded in a narrow range. Tensions around Greece weaken the euro and underpin the American currency. Macroeconomic data were mixed. Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for July has risen to its strongest since 2007, making Fed rate hike less likely. On the other hand, Manufacturers' Price index added 0.5% in may – the best record since September, 2012. Most investors believe that the cheap oil effect comes to an end and the inflation will soon move to the target 2% level. After it reaches the mark, FRS may raise the rate. The American stocks trade volume was 18% below the monthly average, making 5bln shares. This week Federal Reserve System will hold a meeting, which may give information, concerning the future monetary policy. Rate hike is not expected. At 15:15 CET Industrial Production Index will be released in the USA; the tentative outlook is positive.

European stocks have been retreating for two days in prospect of Greek default risks. Stoxx Europe 600 has lost about 1%. Greek ATG Index has slumped 6.2% with the bank sector leading in losses. National Bank of Greece shares contracted 11.6%. Bank of Piraeus stocks decreased 16%. The German Metro retail chain fell 3.8% on the news saying that its Galeria Kaufhof subsidiary company would be sold for €2.8bln. Eurozone Trade Balance will be published today at 11:00 CET; the forecast is positive.

Nikkei has advanced today within the sideways trend. Investors anticipate further Japanese economy recovery. Greek default risks make other countries' assets more attractive. Tokyo Marine Holdings insurance company stocks climbed 1.7%, while Nichirei food corporation rallied 7% due to the raised forecast by Nomura Holdings investment bank.



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