IFC Markets - Analytics

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    US dollar index and US dollar longs fall

    Investors reduced US dollar net long bets from $21.73 billion in the previous week to $20.89 billion according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to October 6. Live dollar index data indicate US dollar weakened 0.5% against six major currencies during the one week period. Economic reports during the week didn’t provide conclusive evidence of strengthening of US economy on the backdrop of slower growth in China and commodities slump that would reduce the uncertainty about raising the interest rates this year by the Federal Reserve. On the contrary, September disappointing jobs report showed jobs growth has slowed. 142,000 new jobs were created in September instead of the 201,000 forecast. Besides fewer jobs created in September, August numbers were also revised down just as July numbers were lowered. At the same time average hourly earnings in September were flat. The weaker than expected jobs report indicated the economy may not be strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year as it has signaled it intends to do. This weakened the dollar as investors cut the bullish bets on dollar. As is evident from the Sentiment table, the sentiment improved for all major currencies except for the euro, British Pound and Swiss franc. All major currencies are held net short against the dollar.

    The euro sentiment deteriorated marginally as the net short bets in euro widened $0.18bn to $12.5bn, with euro’s share growing to about 60% of long US dollar position. The euro net short position rose as investors increased both gross longs and gross shorts .The Japanese yen sentiment continued to improve with net short position narrowing $0.47bn to $1.8bn as yen demand was on the rise with market sentiment turning more risk averse following slowing global growth evidence. Investors cut both the gross longs and gross shorts. The sentiment remained bearish toward the British Pound, with net short Pound position widening $ 0.23bn to $0.43bn. Investors cut gross longs while they increased gross shorts.

    The Canadian dollar sentiment turned bullish with the net short position narrowing $0.46bn to $2.68bn. Investors cut both gross longs and gross shorts. The Australian dollar sentiment continued to improve with net short bets narrowing by $0.48bn to $2.9bn as investors increased gross longs and covered shorts. Swiss franc sentiment continued to deteriorate with the net short position widening $0.1bn to a net short of $0.5bn. Investors cut the gross long contracts and increased gross shorts.


    commitment of traders

    commitment of traders net long short

    commitment of traders weekly change

    market sentiment ratio long short positions


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