Statistics may affect the yen
On Tuesday morning at 00:50 CET several important macroeconomic indicators will be released in Japan: GDP for the 4th quarter in the final reading, the current account balance for January and the volume of bank lending in February. Preliminary forecasts imply deterioration in the Japanese economy. Is weakening of the yen possible? The chart would display the movement like a growth.
Investors are awaiting the revision of decline in GDP for the 4th quarter in annual terms from 1.4% to -1,5 -1,6%. The surplus of the balance of payments may also be reduced in January compared with December. An increase in world prices for hydrocarbon fuel could be an additional negative factor for Japan. The following important data will be released on March 16. It will be the foreign trade figures in February.
On the daily time frame USDJPY: D1 is in the neutral trend. Parabolic indicator and MACD formed a signal to buy. The RSI indicator is growing but has not exceeded 50. It formed two divergencies for buying. Bollinger Lines greatly expanded which means high volatility. We do not exclude bullish movement if the yen exceeds last two upper fractals: 114.9. This level can be used as an entry point. Initial risk limitation may be set lower than the last two fractals and a 16-month low: 110.9. After the opening of a pending order, we can move the stop after Bollinger and Parabolic to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential ratio of profit/loss in our favor. Most cautious traders can change to a four-hour time frame and set the stop-loss following the direction of a price after making the deal. If the price overcomes the stop level (110.9) without activating the order (114.9), the position is recommended to be removed: the market internal changes occur that were taken into account.
|Buy stop||above 114,9|
|Stop loss||below 110,9|