USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to the safe haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 5.77% to 18.33, S&P 500 closed 0.42% lower at 2,041.51 overnight). The pair is also weakened by the renewed worries about Greece after the European Central Bank said that it is lifting a waiver on using Greek debt as collateral and by the sharp fall in oil prices on Wednesday that ended a four-session series of gains . USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.747% versus 1.780% late Tuesday) and Japan's exports. But the USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from the Japanese importers, the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 94.57 versus 93.77 early Wednesday). The latter was caused by the stronger than expected U.S. January ISM non-manufacturing PMI of 56.7 (versus forecast 56.1), while investors remained upbeat on the U.S. labour market conditions ahead of the Friday's non-farm payrolls report despite a fewer than expected 213,000 increase in the ADP U.S. private sector jobs in January (versus forecast 240,000).
The daily chart is mixed, the MACD is bearish, but stochastics is neutral; five- and 15-day moving averages are meandering sideways.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 117. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 116.55. The pivot point stands at 117.65. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 117.95 and the second target at 118.20.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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