USD/JPY is expected to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the flows to haven yen amid increasing risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 7.29% to 18.55, S&P 500 closed 0.42% lower at 2,046.74 overnight) as deepening standoff between Greece and its creditors enhanced fears of a forced exit by the indebted nation from Europe's single currency union. Besides, a decline in China's January exports and imports raised concerns about slowing global economy. USD/JPY is also affected by the broadly weaker dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 94.51 versus 94.70 early Monday) on profit-taking of long USD positions and Japan's export sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 1.977% versus 1.938% late Friday), demand from Japan's importers, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
The daily chart is still positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are in a bullish mode. Five-day moving average is rising above 15-day moving average.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118. A break of this target will move the pair further downward to 117.65. The pivot point stands at 119. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.30 and the second target at 119.75.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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