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    AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for April 25, 2012

    Nothing has changed relative to the trend in the Dollar index. The consolidation near the highs continues and the triangle is still unbroken. The most probable outcome for me is to see an upward break out of the triangle, but even if we see the triangle break lower, I believe the longer-term bullish trend is intact and bulls could still expect one more leg upwards to 100.

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    Red lines = triangle pattern

    Short-term support is at 93.90-93.70, while short-term resistance is found at 95. Whichever level breaks, we should expect at least a new short-term trend start with possible targets of 91.50 or 97-98. This consolidation near the highs looks more like a bullish flag to me. From the viewpoint of a trader, I believe traders should remain neutral and act only when a break out occurs.

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    Green lines = price channel

    The Dollar index remains inside a strong bullish move. The channel and tenkan-sen (red line) support levels are at 92.50. So a pullback even towards that area would be something natural. The trend remains strongly bullish and I continue to expect we could see 100 over the coming months.

    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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