NZD/USD is to trade in a lower range. It is undermined by the bullish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11-year high 95.514 Monday, last 95.49 versus 95.45 early Monday) and the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.085% versus 2.002% late Friday) as expectations prevail that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as early as midyear. The pair is also affected by contagion from the weak Aussie, a rise in the US core PCE price index for January by 0.1% on-month and by 1.3% on-year, while the US ISM manufacturing PMI for February came in at 52.9 roughly meeting the forecast of 53.0. But the NZD/USD losses are tempered by the positive investor risk appetite.
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels. Bearish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Monday.
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7570 and the second target at 0.7615. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7470. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 0.7430. The pivot point is at 0.7510.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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