REVIEW. According to flash estimates of the Federal Statistical Office, retail turnover in January 2015 in Germany increased 5.3% in real terms and 4.1% in nominal terms compared with the corresponding month of the previous year. The Spain unemployment data gave an optimistic view on the economy. The number of the unemployed registered at the offices of the Public Employment Services dropped in February at 13,538 people and puts the total at 4,512,153 people. It has been the best unemployment rate in this month since 2001. In the last seven years, registered unemployment in February had grown by an average of 90,000 people, according to a press release of the Minister of Employment and Social Security. "We cannot allow one person to leave to find work, because we have not done enough in training for employment," said Minister of Employment and Social Security. The minister said that the unemployment data and connection to Social Security "confirm that job creation is accelerating ". Even though the data favours the euro, the pair lost its intraday gains. Investors' focus is shifted to Thursday's ECB press conference. Expectations hit a high of details of the ECB quantitative easing that begins in mid-March.
Today, the trading session is accompanied by a series of economic data on the euro and USD. Spanish and Italian services PMI, Final services PMI, Retail sales data are due. Besides, we expect US ADP non-farm unemployment change, final services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Federal member Evans' speech. Ahead of the heavy data day, the pair is trading with a mild positive tone at the Asian session.
From the technical view, nothing change in the hourly and daily view. The broken support base turned into a resistance zone between 1.1260 and 1.1280. Again, we recommend using every rise to sell with targets at 1.1100, 1.0970, and 1.0930. The panic will be triggered below 1.1150. In case, an h4 candle closes below 1.1150, bears can challenge mentioned lower targets. Selling is below 1.1150, currently trading at 1.1180. The prices are closed and trading far below hourly moving averages. Until prices close below 1.1250, use every rise to sell. The weekly resistance is found between 1.1310 and 1.1350. The trading pattern is framed between 1.1280 and 1.1150. Forgot buying, until the price closes above 1.1280 on a positional basis.
Resistance: 1.1200, 1.1240, 1.1260.
Support: 1.1177,1.1150, 1.0970.
Trade: selling below 1.1150
Ahead of the ECB press conference on Thursday, the euro is trading lower against the yen. The cross lost 0.4% in yesterday's trade and closed at the lowest point of the day. The pair founds immediate support between 133.65 and 133.44. The cross is closed and trading below 20Dsma, which means a near-term bearish outlook. The cross made a double top at 136.68 and has been making a descending trend line on the daily chart, which represents a positional bearish view. At yesterday's session, Spain and Italy printed optimistic data. Even though the data favours the euro, the pair lost its gains. Investors' focus is shifted to Thursday's ECB press conference. Expectations hit high of details of the ECB quantitative easing. On a positional basis, bearish view is on play. Until the price closes above 137.00, use rise to sell.
The lowest lows and lower highs have been developing on the h4-chart, suggesting more room for a downside is yet to come. We recommend selling below 133.65. Panic will be triggered below 133.40 with targets at 132.75, 132.50, and 132.30. On the down side, the prices formed a base support between 132.38 and 132.28. The intraday resistance is set between 134.00 and 134.30. The pair can regain upswing momentum only above 134.65. Fresh selling will ignite below 133.40 with a target at 132.50.
Trade: selling is below 133.65, safe selling is below 133.40.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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