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    Technical analysis and trading recommendations of GBP against USD & YEN for March 04, 2015



    The UK's economy has been moving at a good pace for four months. After the manufacturing PMI data proved an optimistic view, the other data such as construction PMI again proved UK's economy is shaping well. The printed data showed the biggest expansion of construction activity for four months. PMI registered 60.1 in February, up from 59.1 in January and above the neutral 50.0 threshold for the twenty second month in a row. The latest reading picked up further from Decembers 17-month low and signalled a sharp expansion of construction output that was the fastest since October 2014. The pound fell slightly against US dollar at yesterday's session.


    Today traders eye on UK' services PMI and US ADP non-farm unemployment change, final services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and Federal member Evan speech. Ahead of the heavy data day, the pair trading mild positive at Asia's session.

    Technical view-

    We are bullish for the British pound against crosses, but still remain cautious about the US dollar. The support seems between 1.5330 and 1.5315, last hope at 1.5280 or 50Dsma. The intraday resistance is found at 1.5370. Bulls can challenge 1.5500 and 1.5560, in case the price closes above 1.5480. The near- and medium-term trend will turn to positive, in case the price closes above 1.5500 on a weekly basis. We recommend selling below 1.5345 with targets at 1.5330, 1.5316, and 1.5280. Until the pair closes above 1.5280, buying will remain in play. The cable has been improving the support base from the lows of 1.4951. If we look at the daily chart, prices are moving up and consolidating, again pushing to a new high with consolidation. This time, the price is consolidating in the crucial support zone. Resistance: 1.5370, 1.5400, 1.5460. Support: 1.5345, 1.5330, 1.5280.

    Trade: selling below 1.5345.

    Buying could be above 1.5400 with targets at 1.5440 and 1.5460.


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    The cross is going on its five-week uptrend. The cross made a double top at 185.00. Today, at the Asian session the cross is testing its fate at a strong support base of 183.50. We recommend fresh buying above 185.05. We are bullish about GBP against crosses. The trading pattern is framed between 183.50 and 185.00. The prices formed a support base at 183.50. The weekly support is seen at 183.50 and 182.50. The pound favors buying on dips against the cross currencies. Today, traders eye UK' services PMI. Ahead of the event, the pound is trading lower against the yen. The intraday support is found at 183.50. Until the cross closes above 181.50, the long trade remains in play. The price closed and is trading below the hourly moving averages on h1 and h4 chart, representing bearish views. We are mild bearish below 183.50. For an intraday view, we recommend fresh buying above 184.00 with targets at 184.20 and 184.70. The safe buying will be triggered above 184.20. Besides, you are recommended to sell below 183.50 with targets at 183.00 and 182.60.

    Buying above 184.00.

    Selling below 183.50.


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    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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