A fall in commodity prices leads to a fall in interest rates. Mark Carney hinted, UK's inflation is likely to fall to zero. Today, traders eye UK's manufacturing production report. We expect an uptick 0.2% from the previous 0.1%. The cable erased mostly of its gains at yesterday's session. Ahead of the manufacturing production data the cable is trading with a mild positive bias at the Asian session. We are bullish for the British pound against crosses, but still remain cautious about the US dollar. The UK is slowly approaching its general election scheduled in May. Market participants expect the pound to get under downward pressure. A trading pattern is framed between 1.5140 and 1.5030. The support seems at 1.5029. The cable has parallel support between 1.4990 and 1.4950. The monthly support is seen at 1.4810. In case, the price closes below 1.4950, we can expect 1.4800 in the medium term and 1.4350 in the longer term. The cross EUR/GBP is also weighing on the pound. The eurozone is the major trading partner of the UK. We recommend fresh intraday selling below 1.5020 with targets at 1.4990, and 1.4960. The panic will be triggered below 1.4950 towards 1.4560 initially. Until the prices close below 1.5190, the near-term bearish view remains on play. Until the prices close below 1.5300, the intra-month bearish view remains on play. The strong momentum will ignite only above 1.5190. Bulls will regain mild strength, in case the pair closes above 1.5140 on a daily basis.
Resistance: 1.5100, 1.5170, 1.5200.
Support: 1.5029, 1.4990, 1.4950.
Trade: buying above 1.5110 with targets at 1.5135 and 1.5170.
Japan's core machinery orders again disappointed with a decrease by 1.7% from 8.3% uptick. The pair has been making head-and-shoulder pattern on the h4 chart. Height from the neck line is 350 pips. The pair been struggling to close above 20Dsma for 4 days. The cross has intraday support at 182.10 or 100Dsma.
The weekly support is seen between 181.47 and 181.20 or 50Dsma. The parallel resistance seems at 183.70. On a monthly basis, until the cross closes above 181.20, the long trade remains in play. We are bullish for the British pound against crosses, but still remain cautious about the US dollar. The trading pattern is shifted to 181.50 and 184.00 from 185.00 and 183.50. The panic will be triggered below 181.50 towards 181.00,180.00 and 176.50. At yesterday's session, our trailing stop loss was taken out at 182.80. Today, again we recommend buying again with sl 182.10 with targets at 182.80 and 182.90. Huge upswing for intraday looms at 183.00 to 184.00. A new upswing looms above 184.20. In case the price closes above 184.20, it can extend its rally towards 185.00 and 186.85. Besides, in case the price closes below 181.00, a steep fall will ignite.
Trade: positional buying sl 181.20 remains in play.
Intraday trade: buying sl 182.10
On a positional basis, bulls must try to close above 185.00 as early as they can.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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