The euro paused its falling steak at the yesterday's session against USD. The euro is trading below 12-year lows against USD. Today, traders eye German ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW economic sentiment, the final CPI, the core CPI, and employment change. It's a busy day ahead of economic data. German ZEW economic sentiment rose 4 consecutive months. We expect the same will repeat in March. The euro fate will be decided on Wednesday. We expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 0.25% in June or September. The euro is the most effecting currency due to the divergence policy of the Central Bank. This divergence proves more downside room to this pair.
Technical view: the pair gained 90 pips at the yesterday session. The price managed to close successfully above hourly moving averages in the h1 chart. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0620 and 1.0685. Support is likely to be found at 1.0560 and 1.0490. We recommend safe buying above 1.0685. We have been recommending to trade with a target at 0.9000 for the last three weeks. Parallel support is seen at 1.0335. The euro is trading higher against the US dollar ahead of today's series of data. In case the price closes below 1.0495, bears can challenge 1.0335 and 1.0310 levels in the near term. Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0700. We recommend intraday selling below 1.0490 with targets at 1.0460, 1.0425, 1.0380, 1.0350, and 1.0335.
The Bank of Japan has just released monetary policy meeting minutes. The BOJ kept stimulus unchanged. The Bank is going to purchase Japanese government bonds (JGBs), so their amount will increase at an annual pace of about 80 trillion yen. Regard to the outlook, the economy of Japan is expected to continue its moderate recovery trend. The year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI is likely to be about 0 percent for the time being, due to the effects of a decline in energy prices.
The pair erases most of its Friday's losses. The cross broke 200Wema, 200Msma, and 200Mema as well. These factors represent more bearish views. In the previous week, the pair fell and closed below 200Wema. Parallel support was found at 125.00 and 122.20. In the h4 chart, we can observe distribution around the level of 129.00. We recommend buying above 129.10 with targets at 129.45 and 129.90 initially, and can extend towards 130.80 later. Intraday resistance is seen at 129.05. Intraday support is likely to be found at 127.50. For intraday, we recommend selling below 127.50 with targets at 126.60, 126.00, 125.60, and 125.20. Until the price closes below 130.15, a monthly bearish view remains in play. We can expect intraday strong momentum above 129.10.
Trade: Buying ONLY above 129.10
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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