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Technical analysis and trading recommendation of EUR/USD for March 18, 2015

Review: the eurozone produced a bag of mixed economic data yesterday.

ZEW and German ZEW economic sentiment: in March 2015, the Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany from ZEW increased for the fifth consecutive time. Compared to the previous month, the indicator has gained 1.8 points to a reading of 54.8 (long-term average: 24.7 points) but remained below expectations. This is the indicator's highest value since February 2014. Economic sentiment in Germany remains at a high level.

ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for the eurozone increased by 9.7 points to a reading of 62.4 points. Gaining 11.8 points in March 2015, the current situation indicator for the euro area reached a value of minus 36.6 points.

Final CPI: in the euro area the annual inflation rate was up to -0.3%. The annual inflation in the eurozone was -0.3% in February 2015, up from -0.6% in January. In February 2014, the rate was 0.7%. In the European Union, the annual inflation was -0.2% in February 2015, up from -0.5% in January. A year earlier, the rate was 0.8%. These figures came from the Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

Employment change: the number of employed increased by 0.1% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous quarter, according to national accounts estimates published by the Eurostat.

In the US, housing data plunged in February. Experts believe that heavy snowfalls were the main factor behind this lunge.

Today is a big day in the financial world. We expect wild movements in the coming days. The euro fate is likely to be decided today. We expect the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 0.25% in June or September. The euro is the most effecting currency due to the divergence policy of the Central Bank. This divergence proves more downside room to this pair.

Technical view: the pair gained 20 pips at the yesterday's session closed with marginal gains. The price managed to close successfully above hourly moving averages in the h1 and h4 chart as well. Intraday resistance is seems at 1.0685. Support is likely to be found at 1.0550 and 1.0500. We recommend safe buying above 1.0685. We have been recommending to trade with a target at 0.9000 for the last three weeks. Parallel support is seen at 1.0335. The euro is trading higher lower the US dollar ahead of today's big event. In case the price closes below 1.0495, bears can challenge 1.0335 and 1.0310 levels in the near term, I guess today. Weekly resistance is seen at 1.0710. We recommend intraday selling below 1.0550 with targets at 1.0460, 1.0425, 1.0380, 1.0350, and 1.0335.

Trade: Selling below 1.0580, panic will be triggered below 1.0550

Safe traders selling

below 1.0550


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To contact the author of this story, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com

Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2015


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