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    Technical analysis and trading recommendations on USD against CAD/YEN for March 25, 2015

    The US dollar regained momentum after the US economic reports. New home sales data jumped above a 7-year high. Sales climbed 7.8% surpassing expectations. It enhances the optimistic outlook for the US economy. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. US manufacturers indicated a strong end to the first quarter of 2015 as an output, new businesses and employment are expanding at an accelerated pace in March. As a result, the seasonally adjusted Markit Flash US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index picked up to 55.3 in March, up from 55.1 in February and well above the neutral 50.0 threshold. The latest reading signalled the strongest overall improvement in manufacturing business conditions since October 2014.


    The US dollar is rebounding after the stronger data. The pair fell below 50Dsma intraday, but managed to close above it at the end of the day. Today at the Asian session, the pair again took support from 50Dsma trading with the upward bias. The pair prepared a strong support base between 1.2350 and 1.2300 at 200MSMA. Until prices close above 1.2300, buying on dips still remains in play. The weekly resistance is found at 1.2625 and intraday resistance seems at 1.2515. On the h1 chart, lower lows and lower highs are developing. We expect intraday strong reversal above 1.2550 towards 1.2610 and 1.2650. The near-term picture favors bears. We expect the price to correct towards 1.2400 or 1.2370. From there, the pair changes its direction. Until the price closes below 1.2625, selling on rise will be preferable. We are bullish in a longer term, but the near-term outlook favors mild correction. Intraday support is found at 1.2480 and 1.2450. Today safe intraday trade is not available. I advise traders to wait patiently for a day.


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    The pair managed to hold at 50Dsma closing with marginal gains. Ahead of the US data today, the pair is trading with a negative bias. Intraday support is likely to be found at 119.18. Resistance is seen at 119.90 and 120.40. We recommend buying with SL at 118.90. This view is valid for this week. Bulls must close above 120.40 to take charge. Until then, the trading range pattern is framed between 118.90 and 120.40.


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    Key level for bulls to close above to take charge:

    USD/CAD at 1.2625, USD/JPY at 120.40, USD/CHF at 0.9810.

    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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