USD/CHF is expected to range-trade. It is undermined by the negative dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 96.92 versus 97.23 early Wednesday) after a surprise on-month drop of 1.4% in US February durable goods orders (versus forecast 0.2%). The USD/CHF downside is limited by Swissie sales on the buoyant EUR/CHF cross, the negative Swiss interest rates and the threat of the Swiss National Bank to carry out CHF-selling intervention.
The daily chart is still negative-biased as 5-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining. The MACD and stochastics are bearish, although the latter is at oversold levels, while the inside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9480. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.9440. The pivot point stands at 0.9635. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9720 and the second target at 0.9760.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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