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    Technical analysis and trading recommendation for crosses EUR/JPY & AUD/JPY for March 27, 2015

    Analysis of JPY against EUR &AUD

    Japan released mixed economic data at the Asian session. Now, JPY is trading lower against EUR, GBP, and AUD. However, it rose against USD at the early Asian session.

    Household spending was printed at -2.9% far better than expectations and previous value of -5.1%. The score for household spending declined for the eleventh month in a row.

    Data on Tokyo core CPI y/y was printed at 2.2%, the previous was 2.2% in a stagnant form.

    The Core CPI y/y was down to 2.0 in February, compared to 2.2% in January. The CPI rose to 2.0% in February from the year ago. If we leave out the sales tax hike, the CPI is likely to be at deflation level 0.0%. Lower oil prices are the key reason behind this.

    Retail sales data was up to 2.0% and the former value was -2.0%, far better than expected -1.5%.


    Geo-political tensions raised sentiment of safe heaven bet of JPY. At yesterday's session the pair fell below 20Dsma and closed below that. The cross made a double top at 131.67. It was parallel resistance, which the pair was unable to breach for 3 consecutive days. Earlier, we forecasted the intraday trend turning to bearish. And resistance was seen at 131.20. An hourly candle closes below 130.50. So, we can conclude the near-term trend is capped. We recommend selling below 130.80, strong selling will emerge below 130.50. The pair made a low at 129.53. Positional selling will be triggered below 129.20. The cross has been expanding its rising hourly wedge. Intraday resistance is seen at 130.50. Use rise to sell with sl 130.75. For today's session, we recommend fresh selling below 129.20 with targets at 129.00, 128.60, 128.30, and 128.00. The positional selling is not confirmed yet.

    Trade: use any rise to sell with sl 130.75Safe selling below 129.20

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    The pair was rejected at 100Ema at Tuesday's session and started falling below 50and 20Dsma. At yesterday's session, the pair fell below 50Dsma, but finally managed to close above that level. Until the pair close below94.65, bearish views remains in play. The key trend-changing level is found at 91.75. In case of a daily close below 91.75, it can extend its fall up to 91.00 200Wema and 89.30200Wsma. Intraday support is seen at 93.07. Strong resistance zone is seen between 93.35 and 93.45. We recommend intraday buying above 93.45 with small targets at 93.65 and 93.80. We do not recommend aggressive buying at the current momentum. Positional view remains selling with sl 94.65. We recommend intraday selling below 93.00 with targets at 92.75, 92.50, 92.00, and 91.75.


    Selling below 93.00


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    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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