NZD/USD is expected to trade with bearish bias. It is undermined by the improved dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.33 versus 96.92 early Thursday), higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 1.996% versus 1.920% late Wednesday), fewer-than-expected 282,000 US jobless claims in the week ended 21 March (versus forecast 290,000), and a stronger-than-expected rise in Markit flash US composite PMI (58.5 in March from 57.2 in February versus the forecast of 57.0). Besides, Fed's Lockhart said that stronger US economy means that summer Fed's meetings are "in play" for possible rate hike. Fed's Bullard said the interest rates should be raised soon as there are risks of holding them near zero for too long. The kiwi sales on soft NZD/JPY cross amid subdued investors' appetite for risk. But NZD/USD losses are tempered by the firmer commodity prices and positions adjustment ahead of weekend.
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is bullish, a five-day moving average is above a 15-day moving average and is advancing but stochastics turned bearish at overbought levels.
The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.7530. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 0.7455. The pivot point stands at 0.7620. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.7675 and the second target at 0.7750.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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