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    Technical analysis and trading recommendation for EUR/USD for March 31, 2015

    German CPI: the inflation rate in Germany is expected to be 0.3% in March 2015. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that the consumer prices are expected to increase by 0.5% on February 2015.

    Spanish flash CPI: according to the flash estimate published by the INE, the annual inflation is 0.7% in March 2015. This indicator provides a preview of the CPI that would imply an increase of four-tenths in its annual rate. In February it changed by 1%. This increase is mainly explained by the increase in fuel prices (gas and diesel oil).

    Upcoming events: Macro calendar offered a data-heavy day in the eurozone and European countries. Today, traders eye on German retail sales, unemployment change, French consumer spending, Italian unemployment change, CPI flash estimates, core CPI flash estimates, and unemployment rate. It's a big data for the euro. We are expecting another positive data from German and French.

    Technical view: The US data dominated at yesterday's session. USD rebounds from the lower levels, pressured on its peers. The euro fell against USD at yesterday's session but managed to hold at 20Dsma. Parallel support is found at 1.0800 below this, 1.0768 will be crucial. In case the price closes below 1.0768, we can expect 150 more pips on the down side. The selling pressure is likely to be applied below 1.0800 and strong selling pressure will attack below 1.0768 with targets at 1.0700, 1.0650, and 1.0620. In the hourly chart, we can observe lower lows and lower highs formation. We have been advising the near term trend was going to be capped. Intraday resistance exists at 1.0860 and weekly resistance is seen at 1.0950. We recommend fresh selling below 1.0800. Intraday support is found at 1.0820 and 1.0800, last hope is at 1.0768. In case US consumer confidence does not meet the expectations, then we can see some bump up in the price. We recommend buying above 1.0860 with targets at 1.0900 and 1.0950.

    Trade: selling below 1.0800, panic below 1.0760.

    Buying above 1.0860, strong upswing likely above 1.0950


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    Key technical levels of the euro against USD/JPY/CAD/GBP, and AUD :EUR/USD-Weekly mode favors SELLING with sl 1.0950EUR/JPY- Weekly mode favors turned to selling with sl 130.50EUR/CAD- Weekly mode favors turned to buying with sl 1.3680EUR/GBP. Weekly mode still favors buying, but struggling at 50DsmaEUR/AUD. buying with sl 1.3940 with target at 1.4150, initiated at 1.3850.Target completed high made 1.4186. Use another dip to buy at 1.4080

    We will re-analyze if the weekly trend changes.


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    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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