The United Kingdom current account deficit hit 25.3 billion pounds in Q4 2014, down from a revised deficit of 27.7 billion pounds in Q3 2014. The deficit in Q4 2014 equated to 5.6% down from 6.1% in Q3 2014. The current account deficit narrowed due to a decrease in the trade account deficit, partially offset by a widening in the secondary income account deficit.
The UK GDP increased by 0.6% between Q3 (July to Sept) 2014 and Q4 (Oct to Dec) 2014, revised up to 0.1 percentage points from the previous estimate of GDP published in February, 2015. In the term between Q4 2013 and Q4 2014, GDP increased by 3.0%, revised up to 0.3 percentage points from the previous estimate.
Traders eye on the UK manufacturing PMI. US data will dominate in today's session.
The trading pattern has been framed between 1.5000 and 1.4745. The pair was rejected at 20Dsma after the FED's meeting, making lower lows in the daily chart. In the last quarter, the cable lost almost 700 pips. Today, the British pound is trading higher against USD ahead of the data releases from the US and UK. We recommend fresh selling below 1.4815. Today, the cable opened bullish started lower strategy. Parallel resistance is seen at 1.4875 and 1.4900. In case the price moves towards 1.4875, use this opportunity to sell with sl 1.4920 on a daily closing basis with targets at 1.4750, 1.4720, and 1.4690. In the H4 chart, prices are forming lower lows and lower highs. Until the price closes below 1.5000, gates are open for 1.4660 on the down side. Intraday support is seen at 1.4817 that is an 8-hour low and resistance is seen at 1.4875 and 1.4920. We can expect strong upswing only above 1.5000 in case the price closes above on a daily basis. Eventually, the pound looks weak against USD ahead of political drama. UK is slowly approaching its general election scheduled for May. Market participants expect the pound to get under a downward pressure.
Trade: Selling with sl 1.4920, below 1.4815 more selling pressure will be added
The cross has been testing its fate at key moving averages. In the monthly chart, the price has been testing its fate at 200Msma. The cross managed to close above 200Msma for consecutive 3 months. In the weekly chart, 50Wsma helped the price move back to highs. In the last 8 months, the 50Wsma pushed the price to higher levels in 4 occasions. Whenever the price corrects towards 50Wsma, the moving average helped the price print new fresh high. Last week, the pair managed to close above that. This week's closing will give a clear picture either big move or fall. I expect higher levels. Strong support zone is based between 176.00 and 175.50. In the daily chart, 200Dsma and 200Dsma are acting as strong resistance zones. These factors show how moving averages behave and take leadership to change the trend. In the H4 chart, lower lows and lower highs formation is seen. In the H1 chart, higher lows and higher highs formation are made. Intraday support is found at 117.00 and resistance is seen at 177.75. I do not advise buying/selling under the current. We need more clarity on a daily basis.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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