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    Technical analysis of USD/JPY for April 06, 2015


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    Fundamental Outlook:
    USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bearish bias. USD/JPY is underpinned by bearish dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit 11.5-year high 97.828 this morning, last 97.69 versus 96.33 early Friday) after more-than-expected 295,000 increase in the US February non-farm payrolls (versus forecast 240,000) and lower-than-expected US February unemployment rate of 5.5% (versus forecast 5.6%). Although, average hourly earnings rose less-than-expected by 0.1% (versus forecast 0.2%). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher US Treasury yields (10-year at 2.24% versus 2.11% late Thursday), demand from Japan importers, and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales, flows to haven JPY, and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 8.26% to 15.2, S&P 500 closed 1.42% lower at 2,071.26 Friday) as the robust non-farm payrolls report heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy by June. Risk sentiment are soothed by the data released on Sunday showing the China's exports posting a strong 48.3% rebound in USD terms in February (versus forecast 13.3%).

    Technical comment:
    The daily chart is positive biased as the MACD and stochastics are bullish. Although, the latter is at overbought levels, five- and 15-day moving averages are advancing.

    Trading recommendations:
    The pair is trading below its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a lower range as far as it remains below the pivot point. Short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.65. A break of that target will move the pair further downwards to 118.35. The pivot point stands at 119.30. In case the price moves in the opposite direction and bounces back from the support level, it will move above its pivot point. It is likely to move further to the upside. According to that scenario, a long position is recommended with the first target at 119.55 and the second target at 118.35.

    Resistance levels:

    Support levels:

    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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