UK retail sales increased by 3.2% on a like-for-like basis compared to March 2014, when they had decreased 1.7% against the preceding year. On a total basis, sales were 4.7% up against a 0.3% fall in March 2014. Adjusted for the BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index deflation total growth was 6.8%. The figures are flattered by the inclusion of Easter in March this year against April last year.
Today, traders eye on the UK inflation rate. In February, the index fell to 0.0% from 0.3%. This time, we expect it to remain unchanged. The BOE left its near-term inflation outlook on a muted bias in March. Positive readings can ignite mild sharp rally of the pound against crosses like EUR/GBP & GBP/JPY. Against USD the pound does not promise safe buy. The greenback enjoys its rally consolidating at 100.00 mark. The level at 103.00 is likely to be a target above it in the near term. In case the annual CPI readings fell into deflation, we can expect the pound to lose another 200 pips against USD in the near term.
At yesterday's session, the cable managed to close with gains. Today at Asia's session the cable trading on a positive bias. Traders eye ball waiting for the major data on UK and US. The cable has intraday support is found at 1.0460, a 10-hour low. The intraday resistance is seen at 1.4740. Until the price closes below 1.4775, bears will have the upper hand. The cable edged lower after facing strong resistance at 1.4980 likely near term capped. In the hourly chart, prices are consolidating above 23.60 Fibonacci level for 9 hours. For an intraday view, we recommend selling below 1.4660 with targets at 1.4630, 1.4600, 1.4585, 1.4500, and 1.4485. Positional traders can sell with sl 1.4775 targets at 1.4500 and 1.4485 in the near term. The medium-term view is likely to extend more downside targets at 1.4350 and 1.4275. The 1.5000 mark looks hard for bulls to breach. The UK is slowly approaching its general election scheduled for May. Market participants expect the pound to get under a downward pressure.
Trade: Selling below 1.4660, safe selling below 1.4630
Buying above 1.4725 with target at 1.4740 and 1.4775.Sharp upswing likely above 1.4775
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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