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    Technical analysis and trading recommendation for USD against CAD & YEN for April 15, 2015

    The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The retail sales were slightly less than the economists had forecast. The US dollar softened after the soft retail sales data. Today, industrial production and NAHB housing index are due for release. In case of data printed on weak estimates, the dollar is likely to continue softening. Yesterday, we cautioned regarding the retail sales data, which can depress the USD related pairs. At Monday's session, the USDX rejected the level of 100.00. We advised buying the USDX above 98.30 with targets at 98.50 and 98.64. Bulls can challenge 99.80 in a day or two. Eventually, USD touched 99.99 in 3 days after my recommendation. Our near-term target is seen at 103.00. Intra week support is found at 98.00. Intraday resistance is seen at 99.25. We recommend buying above 99.30 with targets at 99.60 and 99.90.


    The dollar edges down after testing the level of 120.85. The pair made a low at 119.07. Hourly and intra week moving averages turned bearish. The pair broke hourly moving averages and closed below. So, my trailing stop loss was taken. But our positional buying stop loss at 119.00 was saved. Today, traders shift attention to the US macro data. As usual, industrial production and housing are expected to print at negative bias. Readings turn positive are likely to be a big thumb up for USD. Then, we can expect big moves at today's session. We recommend buying on every dip with sl 119.00. Intraday support is found at 119.00 and 118.70. Resistance is seen at 120.10 and 120.45. We can expect strong bullish momentum above 120.25. On the down side we recommend selling below 118.70 with targets at 118.40 and 118.20. The trend-change level is found at 118.00. In case the price closes below 118.00, the near-term trend could change to bearish. As of now, the trend still favors to buy on dip.


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    USD/CADThe dollar edges down after testing the level of 1.2667 that was the highest in 10 days. The pair made a low at 1.2445. It is likely to be a double top in the four-hour chart. The intraday trend has shifted to bearish. Yesterday, we cautioned that another 100 pips fall on the downside can be expected in case the price closes below 1.2560. But the pair made low at 1.2460 in the intraday view. Ahead of today's major data on results of BOC press conference and monetary policy, the loonie is trading higher against USD. The strong support base was formed at 1.2350. For bulls, the real damage will be caused below 1.2350. The monthly support is found at 1.2290 and 1.2260. There is not safe intraday trade today.

    Speculators can buy above 1.2500 with small targets at 1.2520,1.2550 and 1.2575. We can expect sharp up move above 1.2575


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    Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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