The US printed weak data again. The headline general business conditions index turned slightly negative for the first time since December, falling eight points down to -1.2. The new orders index, which is negative for the second consecutive month, dropped four points down to -6.0. Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in April rose four points to the level of 56 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released yesterday. USD softens against most major pairs. USD falls down from the major support base against the loonie.
The USDX edged lower from 99.36. The index made a low at 97.90 that is likely to turn double bottom in the four-hour chart. Intraday resistance is seen at 98.45 and 98.75. In the four-hour chart, moving averages favor bulls with bullish crossover. At the Asian session, gold made double top and the USDX made double bottom in the four-hour chart.
The loonie strengthens against USD, EUR & GBP. Rising oil prices are one of the most important factors for the spike. The Bank of Canada kept its interest rates at 0.75%. The Bank expects the global growth and average 3 1/2 per cent per year over 2015-17, in line with the projection in the January Monetary Policy Report. The pair broke below the support zone and closed below that. The pair has immediate support at 1.2245 20Wsma. In case the price fell below this, the next strong support will be found at 1.2220 and 1.2200. The near term turned bearish. We have been recommending this view for 2 days. In case the price closes below 1.2200, the medium-term trend will turn to bearish. We recommended buying of crude oil at yesterday's session. For the next couple of months (April to June) the trading pattern is framed between 1.2200 and 1.3000. A rise in crude oil prices affects bulls and favors bears. In case if oil prices touch $62.00, the pair can drift more towards 1.1875.
Bulls' last hope lies at 1.2200
Trade: We recommend fresh selling only below 1.2200. Risky traders can sue sl 1.2200 and buy. Risk of 50pips.
Uitgevoerd door, Analytische expert
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